Epidemiologist warned that Ontario schools may have to be closed due to the coming third wave of COVID-19 variant spread

BY PAUL JUNOR

There have been concerns about the spread of  the variants, not just all over the world but within Ontario, and especially in Ontario schools.

There was a high level of anxiety when modeling data was revealed on Thursday, March 11^th, 2021 that shows Ontario may see up to 6,000 cases per day by April.

Dr. Adalsteinn Brown of the University of Toronto told the media briefing that it would take both a widespread decrease with respect to present  public safety protocols and people not following them in order for a worst-case scenario to be achieved. He states, “The measures only work if people follow them.”  Dr. Brown serves as co-chair of Ontario’s science advisory table.

There are concerns about how this will impact Ontario’s schools now that the second wave is in full swing. On Friday, March 12^th, 2021 (CP24) ,Dr. Colin Furness, an epidemiologist at the University of  Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public School, predicted  that there may be up to 8,000 COVID-19 cases per day by April due to the transmission of the highly contagious COVID-19 variant strains.

He states, “ We know from the European experience that the kinds of control measures that we use are effective against the variants, we just  need to maybe ramp it up a bit.”  He told Newstalk 1010 on Friday, March 12^th, 2021 that, “I would expect us to need to have to close schools as an important measure, once the variants really pick upstream, and I’m expecting that to happen in the middle of April.”

Dr. Furness told CP24 he believed that the spread of this COVID-19 variant could result  in a third wave that may cause another lockdown in Ontario. He foresees based  on his modelling data that  it would be only a matter of time before the closure of schools occurs. He states, “The good news is, the weather is getting warmer and vaccinations are really ramping up. So, as dire as this looks, I think it’s going to be fairly short-lived, and so I really do want people to feel concerned.”

CTV News Toronto reported on Tuesday, March 16^th, 2021 that the Ontario COVID-19  Science Advisory Table reported to the PC-government that out of 1,489 cases reported on March 15^th, 2021, 733 of  them were due to the variants of concern. This represents 49%.

The Ontario Hospital Association(OHA) announced on Monday, March 15^th, 2021 that Ontario has indeed entered the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic and there is a concomitant increase in the variants of concern and people in intensive care units. It states, “We’re now in wave three. Strong adherence to public health measures is urgently needed to prevent overwhelming hospitals.”

 According to the Ontario government’s website, as of March 16^th, 2021, there have been 1,599 cases reported in the last fourteen days of  which 367 are school-related, of which 301 are students and 66 are staff. Out of 4,828 schools across the province, 893 have at least one reported case and 27 have been closed.