A Better Tomorrow
You are not the problem. your blind spots are
“Wald didn’t think harder than the generals. He asked one question they skipped. That is what think less means here. Less time defending a guess, and one thing you can check.”
In World War II, the US military studied bombers that returned from missions. Bullet holes clustered on the wings and tail. The obvious fix: add armor there. Mathematician Abraham Wald said no. Armor the places with no holes. The planes hit in the engines never came back.
Everyone looked at the same planes. Wald looked at the planes that were not there. That is the difference between thinking and seeing. After watching this video, it got me thinking; how many of us are thinking with incomplete evidence.
Three questions that cut through noise
What do I actually know?
Before you fix anything, stand still. In a coffee shop, a long line feels like a cashier problem. Watch closer. Most people waiting have already paid. They are waiting for the machine. The slow part was invisible because it was behind the line.
What am I assuming?
You assumed faster payment means less waiting. It did not. Paying was never the bottleneck. Making coffee was. We fix the most visible part of a problem and call it the whole problem.
How can I check? Pick one busy morning. Add a second person to the machine. Time the whole wait from joining the line to holding the coffee. If it improves, keep it. If not, you learned something cheaper than another salary.
Photographer: Baptista Ime James
The patterns we keep repeating
A student gets a 58 on a test. “I am bad at this subject,” becomes the story. What do you actually know? You know which questions you did poorly on. What are you assuming? That you did poorly at them because you did not understand. Look closer. Maybe you ran out of time. Maybe you misread what was asked. Each one is a different fix.
Someone does not reply to your message for two days. Your guess: they are annoyed with you. What else could explain it? They are busy. They forgot. They do not know what to say. How can you check? Send one short follow-up asking for what you need. You do not have to decide how they feel before you do that.
Survivorship bias in everyday life
Let us take a look at what survivorship bias is. It is when we draw conclusions from what survives while overlooking what did not make it to the sample. The bombers on the airfield survived. The coffee shop owner saw the line at the register, not the wait at the machine. Your unanswered message tells you less about the other person than your first reaction does.
The public is irrational. We rely on stereotypes and experts because complexity is exhausting. System 1 thinking jumps to conclusions. System 2 thinking asks: what am I not seeing, and why am I not seeing it?
A framework for emotionally charged moments
When stakes are high, emotions run hot. Here is how to navigate:
Prime the conversation
Set the stage for receptivity. “I want to understand what happened before I decide what it means.”
Acknowledge multiple perspectives
“I see this one way. You might see it another. Both could be true.”
Address underlying concerns, not surface arguments
The long line is not about cashiers. The test score is not about intelligence. The silence is not about rejection.
Use language that resonates with values
For North Americans: efficiency, autonomy, results. For Caribbean folks: community, respect, relationship. Match your message to their mindset.
Your reflective notebook
Take one problem you keep coming back to. Write what you know happened. Write what you think caused it. Then choose one thing you can check. Before you spend another hour thinking about it, check that one thing.
Photographer: Brandy Kennedy
Questions to sit with:
- What evidence am I missing because it never came back to be counted?
- Where in my life am I armoring the wings when the engines are the problem?
- What guess have I defended longer than I have tested it?
Action you can take today
Pick one situation. A work conflict. A family tension. A business decision. Apply the three questions:
- What do I actually know? (List only observable facts)
- What am I assuming? (Name the hidden story)
- How can I check? (Design one small test by Friday)
Thinking clearly is only half the job. It shows you what you are missing. The rest is courage to check.
Sources for deeper study: