Ontario is mismanaging wildfire prevention

In recent weeks, acrid wildfire smoke has blanketed large swaths of Ontario, raising the question: is this an anomaly or a new norm? President Trump reacted predictably, threatening tariffs and shining a light on potential mismanagement of forests and wildfire mitigation programs in Ontario.

Ontario’s 2025 wildfire season produced 643 fires and burned 597,654 hectares, nearly four times the area burned in 2024. The province later added $90 million to cover wildfire management and suppression costs for that season.

Those numbers show why the debate cannot be reduced to whether firefighters received enough emergency money once the fires started. Ontario ultimately pays the bills. The more important question is whether the province is investing early enough in personnel, aircraft, prevention and forest management to reduce the damage before emergency spending becomes necessary.

Ontario has traditionally financed wildfire response through a base allocation, supplemented by additional Treasury Board funding when conditions require it. That gives the province flexibility because fire seasons vary significantly. It also means the published budget can understate the province’s probable costs and provide an incomplete picture of its readiness.

Money approved during an emergency can cover aircraft rentals, overtime, fuel and outside assistance. It cannot quickly produce experienced crew leaders, pilots, mechanics or incident commanders.

Ontario added 68 permanent firefighting and support positions for the 2026 season and increased compensation for firefighters, pilots and aircraft-maintenance engineers. It has also committed more than $500 million for six new DHC-515 water bombers, although those aircraft are not expected until the early 2030s at the earliest.

These are substantial investments, but they also illustrate the long lead time involved. Ontario cannot wait for an extreme season before deciding that permanent capacity is required.

The second issue is how Ontario manages the forests themselves.

After commercial harvesting, aspen, birch and other broadleaf vegetation often regenerate faster than spruce and pine. Forestry operators use herbicides, primarily glyphosate, to suppress that competition and help commercially desirable conifers become established.

A Canadian Forest Service report estimated that herbicides were applied to approximately 70,000 hectares of Ontario forest annually, representing about one-third of the area being regenerated at the time of the report. More recent forest audits confirm that glyphosate remains in active use. In the Boundary Waters Forest, aerial herbicides were applied across thousands of hectares during the latest audit period, with glyphosate identified as the herbicide used.

Glyphosate does not ignite forests, and current evidence does not prove conclusively that spraying caused Ontario’s recent wildfire seasons but there appears to be a correlation. Fire growth is heavily influenced by wind, fuel moisture, temperature, vegetation and topography.

The legitimate policy question is whether long-term conifer-focused regeneration is producing more uniform and combustible landscapes.

Deciduous forests, mixed forests and conifer forests behave differently during fires. Aspen and birch generally retain more moisture during the growing season, while dense spruce and pine stands can carry intense crown fires when conditions are dry. Replacing broadleaf competition with large, similar-aged conifer stands may therefore increase fuel continuity in some managed areas.

Ontario also faces accumulated fuels created by decades of aggressive fire suppression, along with insect damage, windfall, logging residue and the decline of Indigenous cultural burning. The province’s own silvicultural guidance recognizes prescribed fire as a possible tool in areas affected by blowdown or insects.

The solution is not to stop fighting fires or immediately prohibit every forestry herbicide. It is to connect wildfire planning with forestry planning.

Ontario should establish a transparent, multi-year wildfire budget based on the average cost of recent seasons, rather than relying so heavily on emergency additions. It should publish annual figures for staffing, aircraft availability, hectares treated with herbicides, prescribed burns, fuel reduction and community protection work.

The province should also commission independent field research comparing fire behaviour in sprayed conifer blocks, untreated mixed wood regeneration and selectively managed forests. Future forest-management plans should preserve strategic deciduous corridors, reduce large areas of continuous conifer fuels and expand prescribed and Indigenous-led burning near vulnerable communities.

If we do not act decisively, we may pay a high economic price, courtesy of US President Donald Trump and his ‘art of the deal’ nuclear negotiation tactics.