The plundering of Canada’s middle class

A country does not hollow out its middle class overnight, nor does it necessarily happen while the government is admitting that anything is wrong. More often, politicians are announcing investments, celebrating programs and assuring us that the economy is growing, while working families wonder why owning a home, raising children, and saving for retirement have become so difficult.

Canadians need to understand what is being lost, because we were once held up as an example of how to get this right. In 2014, international income comparisons suggested that Canada’s middle class had caught or surpassed its American counterpart, reinforcing the expectation that hard work and responsible choices would provide a comfortable life.

Since then, the comparison with our southern neighbour has become less flattering. World Bank GDP figures, adjusted for inflation and differences in purchasing power, show that Canada’s economic output per person increased from approximately $55,700 in 2015 to $57,500 in 2024, a gain of about 3 percent in nine years. Over the same period, the United States went from about $64,400 to $75,700, an increase approaching 18 percent.

These figures use constant international dollars and measure production, not what ordinary families take home, but they expose the widening gap between our economies. While Americans were generating more output per person, Canadians were quickly falling dangerously far behind.

Mexico offers another uncomfortable comparison. Its real output per person rose from approximately $21,400 in 2015 to $22,000 in 2024, also around three percent, meaning Canada delivered the same sluggish growth despite starting from a wealthier position, which should prompt earnest questions about the policies guiding our economic future.

Russia makes the contrast even harder to dismiss. Its inflation-adjusted, purchasing-power-adjusted output per person increased from about $35,000 to $41,900 over those same nine years, a gain of 20 percent compared with Canada’s three percent. Some recent Russian growth reflects military production, which should not be confused with better living conditions, yet the fact that a sanctioned war economy expanded output per person faster than Canada deserves scrutiny rather than excuses.

Looking back to 2010 does not rescue our record. Through 2024, real output per person increased approximately nine percent in Canada, compared with 10 percent in Mexico and 27 percent in both Russia and the United States. Considering the negative press that Russia receives in Canadian media, Canadians deserve an answer as to why Canada has achieved so little with so much when a highly restricted Russian economy delivered far more growth to its populace.

For families across Greater Toronto, housing makes that question painfully concrete. The average home sold for approximately $622,000 in 2015 and $1.07 million in 2025, a nominal increase of about 72 percent. Rising property values can enrich existing owners while pushing the next generation further from ownership, allowing the country to look wealthier even as the opportunity to build wealth becomes less accessible.

Affordable energy matters because fuel costs reach well beyond the gas station, running through farming, trucking, construction and manufacturing before arriving on the grocery shelf or kitchen table. Cheap oil is not automatically good for an oil-exporting economy, but affordable, reliable energy should still be a Canadian advantage rather than something governments casually make harder to produce and deliver.

The investment record deserves equal attention. According to the OECD, investment per worker fell approximately 15 percent in Canada between 2014 and 2023, while rising 21 percent in the United States.

Canada remains wealthy, which makes this record less excusable. With our energy, resources, educated workforce and decades of barrier-free access to the American market, we should be debating how to lead rather than explaining why we lag. The middle-class promise was that honest work would provide a realistic path to security and restoring that promise matters far more than defending the politicians who keep telling us how well we are doing.

The canary in the coal mine of a nation’s long-term economic success and family-friendly environment is the health of its middle class. In Canada all alarm bells are on and there should be no greater focus than restoring the environment that produces a healthy middle class. Sadly, there is mostly silence in the media and government circles.

We must demand better.